Water FractalTier 1
at Apex Store Champs
decks
13
(30.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
50
21-20-9
overall winrate
51.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
50.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1380
· median 1376
· range 1183–1539
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1277
Q3 1397
1633
46% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.6% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 50.9% | +0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.6% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 40.2% | -4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 9.3% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 48.6% | -0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 48.8% | -0.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 29.3% | -13.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.8% | +5.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Wind Kongming | 2.3% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Fractal of Refreshment, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Censer of Restful Peace. Losers more often ran: Extricating Touch, Disenchant, Water Resonance Bauble.
Fractal of Refreshment
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Censer of Restful Peace
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Portentous Tanggu
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Snow Fairy
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Song of Frost
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Extricating Touch
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Disenchant
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Chill to the Bone
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Acquiescing Rejection
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Unstable Fractal
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.62 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.38 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eventide Lure | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chibi, Battle of Red Cliffs | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sweet Ambrosia | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Powercell | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |